Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Four years ago today, Rasmussen Reports tracking showed Obama leading John McCain by a 51% to 45% margin. The numbers barely budged for the rest of the campaign season as Obama enjoyed a comfortable lead and stayed between 50% and 52% every day for the last 40 days.
When “leaners” are included, it’s now Obama 49%, Romney 47%. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question. Today is the last day that results will be reported without leaners. Beginning tomorrow, Rasmussen Reports will be basing its daily public updates solely upon the results including leaners. Platinum Members will be still be able to see the more detailed numbers along with demographic breakdowns, and additional information from the tracking poll on a daily basis.
Currently, 43% of voters are “certain” they will vote for Romney. Forty-two percent (42%) are that certain they will vote for Obama. The remaining 15% are either uncommitted or open to changing their mind. To many Americans, especially partisan activists, it is hard to imagine how someone could be anything but certain at this point in time. One of the distinguishing features of these potentially persuadable voters is that they don’t see the choice between Romney and Obama as terribly significant. In terms of impacting their own life, just 28% say it will be Very Important which man wins.
There is particular pessimism among these persuadable voters about the economy. Only 14% think it will get better if the president is reelected. But just 28% believe it will improve with a Romney victory.
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Obama has a one- or two-point lead in each of the Key Three States in this year’s election, Ohio, Florida and Virginia. All three states remain Toss-Ups in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. State polling shows Democrats are now expected to retain control of the Senate. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power projections show the Democrats likely to win or hold 48 seats, while the GOP can probably count on 45. That leaves seven toss-ups. Republicans would need to win six of the seven to win control (or five of the seven if Romney wins and Vice President Paul Ryan can cast a tie-breaking vote).
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Check out our review of last week’s key polls to see “What They Told Us.”
(Presidential Job Approval Data Below)
Scott Rasmussen’s weekly newspaper column shows that the debates are not likely to change the presidential race much, although even a small change could be decisive. An earlier column suggested that, regardless of the outcome, Romney is likely to be the last stand for the Republican establishment.
More voters trust Romney than Obama on the economy. The candidates are now even on national security, and the president has the edge on energy policy. It’s a toss-up on taxes and health care. There is, overall, little optimism. Just 43% believe a victory for Romney and the Republicans would lead to a stronger economy next year. Thirty-four percent (34%) believe that would happen with an Obama victory and Democratic control of Congress.
Rasmussen Reports is a media company whose work is followed by millions on a wide variety of platforms. In addition to the new TV show, we regularly release our work at RasmussenReports.com, through a daily email newsletter, a nationally syndicated radio news service, an online video service and a weekly newspaper column distributed by Creators Syndicate.
To get a sense of longer-term Job Approval trends for the president, Rasmussen Reports compiles our tracking data on a full month-by-month basis.
(Approval Index data below)
During midterm elections, intensity of support can have a tremendous impact on turnout. That was demonstrated in 2010 when Republicans and unaffiliated voters turned out in large numbers to express opposition to the Obama administration’s policies. However, in presidential election years, there is a smaller impact on turnout.
(More below)
Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy." During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point. Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.
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